Entrusted by the China Meteorological Administration, the Meteorological Departments in six provinces, including Hubei, Jilin, Xinjiang, Shaanxi, Yunnan, and Ningxia, have initially developed and completed the "Solar Photovoltaic Power Generation Forecasting System". This system will be promoted and applied in the above regions by June this year.
The project leader, Hubei Meteorological Bureau, introduced that the “solar photovoltaic power generation forecasting system” is composed of 4 subsystems: data collection and processing, database, forecasting product production, and forecasting product web publishing. It can forecast any place or photovoltaic power station to emit radiation every hour for the next 3 days. And power generation, and two power generation forecasting methods are used. One is a principle forecasting method based on a series of physical principles such as atmospheric radiation transmission, photoelectric conversion, DC / AC conversion, and AC grid connection, and the other is a dynamic statistical method based on a combination of numerical weather forecast model products and photovoltaic power generation data.
Chen Zhenghong, an expert of the Meteorological Science and Technology Service Center of Hubei Meteorological Bureau, explained that the results of the two model methods can be compared and verified, so that the same error can be avoided repeatedly under the single prediction method. Because both methods use dynamic rolling forecasts, the model parameters can be updated in a timely manner, and the forecast accuracy is significantly improved.
With this system, Hubei Meteorological Bureau has carried out forecast tests. Based on the measured radiation data from ground meteorological stations and the actual power generation data of two photovoltaic demonstration power stations with installed capacity of 18KW and 1.2MW, an error analysis has been performed. The results show that the hourly radiation forecast The effect is better than similar foreign forecasting methods, and the forecast of hourly power generation is also ideal.
It is understood that the "solar power forecasting system research" is deployed by the China Meteorological Administration in 2010 and 2011 demonstration research, modern climate business construction pilot work, and is also the first generation of photovoltaic power generation forecast system independently developed by China's meteorological department. The establishment and promotion of the system will be of great significance for the meteorological department to actively participate in the pilot work of low-carbon energy and to carry out energy weather protection services.